Without Le Pen and Zemmour, the French right will rally round the conservative Pecresse, which is a major problem for Macron
Marine Le Pen has suspended her presidential campaign. At present, the National Rally leader has been unable to obtain the 500 signatures required to make it onto the ballot paper for the first round of voting, which takes place on April 10. The signatures have to be collected from politicians across the country. They can come from a variety of sources, including Members of Parliament, Senators, Members of the European Parliament (MEPs), and local mayors.
At the time of writing, Le Pen has managed to secure only 393 signatures and is over one hundred short, although she has until the March 4 deadline to submit the five hundred. Her campaign has therefore “paused,” and a number of her speaking engagements have been cancelled, suggesting that her time will instead be spent attempting to collect the required endorsements from elected officials.
But it is not only Le Pen who is under pressure. Eric Zemmour, the other candidate from the Right, is also struggling to find the required sponsorship letters. At the moment, he only has 350 signatures, throwing his candidacy into question.
It is clear that Le Pen and Zemmour are, as predicted, hurting each other’s prospects. It is not a leap in logic to suggest that those politicians who have signed Zemmour’s papers would, if he were not standing, have signed Le Pen’s, and vice versa. As a result, the two now face a tight race against time to make it onto the ballot paper for the first round.
It is also apparent that the system is weighted in favour of the status quo and the centrist candidates. President Emmanuel Macron, for example, already has 1,463 signatures, and he hasn’t yet even announced he will be standing for re-election. Similarly, Valerie Pecresse, the Republican candidate who serves as the President of the Île-de-France Regional Council has 2,143 pledges, and Anne Hidalgo, the Socialist candidate and the mayor of Paris, already has 1,177. Of course, both these candidates can rely on large party machines to ensure that they make it on to the ballot paper.
It must be noted that the latest polls have Pecresse on 15 per cent, which is two percent behind Le Pen, who is only second to Macron. Hidalgo, however, is way behind and polling a mere 2 percent, which is 12% behind Zemmour who is on 14%. So, it is possible that the candidates polling second and fourth with the public might not make it onto the ballot paper because they can not get the required signatures from politicians. That, of course, would be an insult to the French electorate.
The French system is strange, and if I may suggest, somewhat unfair. In the UK, for example, it is the signatures of members of the public that are required to stand for public office, not those of the politicians. This to me seems an infinitely fairer process, as it is after all the public that vote.
What will it mean for the election if Le Pen does not make it onto the ballot paper? Well, beyond being an insult to her millions of potential voters, I believe it could also prove unwelcome news for Macron.
There is a train of thought that Macron needs Le Pen to be in the race because she is his safety valve. She will most likely come second to him in the first round of voting and go through to the second round run-off, which takes place on 24 April. It is generally believed that Le Pen cannot defeat Macron in this head to head, as was the case five years ago when he secured 66% of the vote compared to her 34%.
It would, I expect, be a far tighter race this time round but, even then, I struggle to see Le Pen overcoming her centrist opponent. There is an argument that she simply has too much baggage to attract centre-Right voters in large enough numbers, regardless of her attempts in recent years to detoxify her brand.
However, if Le Pen fails to make it onto the ballot paper because she cannot acquire enough signatures, and Zemmour too falls at this hurdle, many of their potential voters will most likely switch to Pecresse and, I would argue, that she has the best chance of deposing Macron. If Precresse can successfully manage to marry her own conservative base with the voters of Le Pen and Zemmour, then Macron’s presidency could be on a knife edge and the race could go down to the wire.
I still think, however, that Le Pen will get the required signatures, although it could be a close run affair. I am less confident about Zemmour, as he has no party machine and is a newcomer to politics. Nevertheless, the fact that both their fates are in the hands of politicians and not the public suggests that the French system is in urgent need of democratic reform.
source: RT
Împotriva articolelor redacției noastre, persoanele nemulțumite pot formula Contestație în termen de 10 zile de la publicarea articolului, la judecătoria Orășenească nr. 1 München Bayern Deutschland, in conformitate cu Legea federală Germană. Considerăm că nu se pot formula acțiuni la instanțele din România deoarece nici o persoană care activează în trustul nostru nu poate fi extrasă de sub jurisdicția federală germană. Considerăm că redacția noastră nu răspunde în fața autorităților din România ci doar celor federale sau civile germane. deoarece legea română nu are efecte de extraneitate asupra redacției chiar dacă subiectul știrilor face obiectul unor evenimente sau persoane din România și sunt scrise în limba română. Limba română nu este izvor de extraneitate a legii.
absolvent WEB DESIGN Academia Britanică de Comunicare Iasi - absolvent COMUNICARE IN AFACERI Academia Britanica de Afaceri si Comunicare -absolvent JURNALISM EDITORIAL - London School University - 2019 inscris la echivalare diploma la Universitatea Politehnica Timisoara - absolvent studii de Drept Universitatea Europeană Drăgan, cursuri in Drept la Universitatea de Vest Timisoara, absolvent studii de proiectare, pastor coordonator in Biserica Protestanta Evanghelica,
Android Developer pe Google Play și plugin developer la Oxwall, creator de teme Wordpress și Oxwall, operator Wordpress, Drupal, Oxwall, Osclass, Moodle, tehnologii HTML și PHP
A man whose testimony the FBI uses to justify extraditing Julian Assange from Britain has reportedly been arrested in Iceland after police requested his detention to halt his ongoing crime spree, local media reports. Sigurdur Thordarson, also known under the moniker ‘Siggi the Hacker’, was placed into custody in Iceland last month, the newspaper Stundin […]
Ecuador’s President Guillermo Lasso has declared a state of emergency and ordered the armed forces to join law enforcement operations on the streets as the country struggles to combat escalating drug-related violence. “Starting immediately, our armed forces and police will be felt with force in the streets because we are decreeing a state of emergency […]
Downing Street gatherings ‘represent a serious failure’ to observe even the general standards expected from the British public during lockdowns, Sue Gray has concluded Senior civil servant Sue Gray has published a 12-page report following her inquiry into allegations government offices, including 10 Downing Street, held lockdown-breaching parties and events on several occasions during the […]